ACUS02 KWNS 030547
SWODY2
SPC AC 030546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the
Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and
southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are
possible across eastern New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern will feature two cutoff lows, one in the
lower/mid Ohio Valley and another that will develop near the lower
Colorado Valley. A surface low in the central/northern Appalachians
will slowly fill during the day. A cold front will slowly progress
eastward through parts of the Southeast into the Blue
Ridge/Piedmont. In New Mexico, weak moisture return and upslope flow
will occur in the southern Rockies.

...Florida...
With the front pushing into portions of the northern Gulf, weak warm
air advection and mid-level ascent on the southern periphery of the
upper low may promote showers/thunderstorms into the eastern Gulf
and perhaps the western Florida Peninsula. This activity plus cloud
cover associated with the subtropical jet will impact the degree of
destabilization that occurs in some areas. Still, the pattern favors
thunderstorm along the eastern sea breeze boundary during the
afternoon. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along with 25-30 kts effective
shear across the sea breeze will promote supercells. Temperatures
aloft are expected to be -12 to -14 C. Large hail and damaging winds
would be possible with the strongest storms. A tornado would be
possible with a supercell favorably interacting with the sea breeze
boundary. Additional storms are possible along the front in the
eastern Florida Panhandle/North Florida. Shear will be stronger
closer to the upper low, but convergence is not overly strong along
the front. Storm development will depend on local areas of stronger
heating/convergence.

...Georgia into Piedmont/Blue Ridge and upper Ohio Valley
Vicinity...
Precipitation will likely be ongoing for most of these areas early
Sunday morning. With at least low 60s F dewpoints extending into
much of the Mid-Atlantic, destabilization is expected behind the
morning activity. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is
greatest from eastern Georgia into the Carolinas as the
precipitation should move out sooner. Potentially lingering
precipitation and cloud cover cast more uncertainty on the severe
potential for the Mid-Atlantic into the upper Ohio Valley region.
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible during the afternoon.
Effective shear of 35-40 kts will promote a few marginally organized
cells capable of marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds.

...New Mexico...
With the cold front having moved into the northern Gulf, moisture
return along the western flank of the surface high will be weak. Mid
to upper 40s F dewpoints can be reasonably expected. However,
temperatures of -14 to -16 C at 500 mb will allow weak buoyancy to
develop. Mid-level ascent from subtle shortwaves and upslope flow
will promote widely scattered to scattered storms in the southern
Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will promote at least
modest storm organization despite limited buoyancy. Small to
marginally severe hail and isolated strong winds would be possible
with this activity.

..Wendt.. 05/03/2025

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