895 
FXUS64 KMRX 042348
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
648 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Strong and gusty winds continue until this evening across the higher
  elevations and foothills of the East Tennessee mountains. A 
  Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM this evening. 

- Showers and a few isolated storms move through until this evening, 
  with rain continuing thereafter. 

- We dry out for the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Showers and a few isolated storms continue this afternoon across 
the area. The threat for severe weather is still in place, albeit 
low. The environment has plenty of shear, it's just a matter of 
whether we can generate enough instability. There is currently a 
narrow core of weak instability across northern AL and middle TN. 
This is where a weak QLCS currently exists. SPC RAP analysis shows 
this CAPE corridor moving east into our area over the next few 
hours. Current thinking, any appreciable instability will remain 
confined generally south of I-40. This includes the southern 
Cumberland Plateau, southern TN Valley, and southwest NC. In 
these areas, the threat for an isolated, brief and weak, tornado 
remains in place. The main window of concern will be from 2 PM 
this afternoon through 8 PM this evening. 

Elsewhere, a few instance of gusty winds are possible. Any 
heavier shower, or thunderstorm, could bring the higher winds aloft 
down to the surface. Scattered rain showers continue through the 
night and linger into Thursday morning. We dry out through the day 
as dry air moves in behind the front. 

Friday through the weekend is dry as high pressure will move back in 
from the west. Cooler temperatures over the weekend with below 
normal highs and lows expected. 

NBM keeps no POPS through the rest of the extended with temperatures 
returning closer to normal by early next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Cold front moving through the region is currently bringing
thunderstorms to CHA and TYS. Light rain currently falling at TRI.
The threat for TS at the 2 TAF sites should last no later than
02z. Drying will occur from south to north overnight, with MVFR
and possible IFR CIG to follow. Kept inherited 1SM BR at TRI,
however, there is the possibility that VSBY falls below that. CIG
will gradually improve with time tomorrow morning following the
same trend generally from south to north. A weak shortwave behind
the frontal system over the southern Plains will keep winds SWly 
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  73  51  71 /  30   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  72  50  69 /  90   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  71  47  69 /  90   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  72  50  68 / 100  20   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


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