952 
FXUS64 KMRX 051148
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
648 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 646 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

- After morning fog and lingering showers, gradual clearing is 
expected through the day. 

- Cooler temperatures move in by Friday into the weekend,
  following a recent frontal passage. Then, a gradual warming
  trend is expected next week with dry conditions continuing. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Currently, a closed low is located to our north with a frontal 
boundary along western portions of the area. Ahead of the cold 
front, showers and storms have provided widespread rain to the area. 
Fog has already been developing, and a Dense Fog Advisory has been 
issued for part of the area. The front will gradually move through 
the area during the day with a few additional showers possible. 
Otherwise, gradually clearing conditions are expected with 
northwesterly winds ahead of high pressure producing seasonally 
cooler temperatures by Friday morning. As the closed low to the 
north approaches the area, height falls will help to reduce highs 
more into the 60s during the day. By Saturday, high pressure will be 
centered to our west with CAA having pushed highs down into the 50s 
for most. Saturday night, high pressure will become more directly 
centered over the region, leading to stronger subsidence and 
radiational cooling with overnight lows dropping well into the 30s. 
This will likely be the first frost for many places, along with a 
first freeze for some as well. 

Surface high pressure will remain in place on Sunday with varying 
indications of a shortwave moving in from the west. Continued 
subsidence and drier air will keep the region dry and mostly clear, 
but temperatures will remain seasonally cooler through the day. 
After the shortwave moves east, subtle height rises with quasi-zonal 
flow will allow for a slight warming trend into the next week. 
Overall, highs should be in the 60s for most with morning lows in 
the 30s and lower 40s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Patchy dense fog this morning should scatter over the next 1 to 2
hours, but MVFR CIGs are likely to hold on a little longer. Low 
ceilings will likely be slowest to clear across northeastern TN.
No rain expected. Winds to remain light, becoming southwesterly
flow today before returning to calm tonight. Additional fog
possible late in the TAF period, but left it out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  50  70  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  50  68  45 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  46  68  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  50  67  43 /  30   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for 
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-
     Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
     Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Union-West 
     Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)