ACUS02 KWNS 070549
SWODY2
SPC AC 070548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the
central and southern High Plains Monday.

...Synopsis...
Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S.,
flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from
the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough
will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the
surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing
surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High
Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints
north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High
Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN.

...Central and Southern Plains...
A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High
Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the
apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface
dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the
low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent
from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support
diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough,
potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning
storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also
possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough.
However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection
could limit storm coverage/development.

Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing
northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization.
Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear
magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor
some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are
possible.

...Pacific Northwest...
Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered
thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate
southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air
mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly
weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level
flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms
across central OR into southern WA.

..Lyons.. 09/07/2025

$$
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