FOUS11 KWBC 050656
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026

...Upper Peninsula of Michigan...
Day 1...

Departing system sprawled across southeastern Canada will slowly 
exit the Great Lakes today, with a trailing vort max diving 
southward across Lake Superior this evening. Marginally cold air 
will filter in from the north with some lake-enhanced precipitation
on northerly flow. As the 850mb temperature drops below zero and 
surface T/Tds fall to the lower 30s, snow will accumulate over 
especially the higher terrain away from the relatively milder lake 
shore (e.g, Huron Mountains). Expected accumulation is 0.5-2.5" or 
so, but the probability of at least 4 inches of snow is 10-20% per 
the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal. 


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than 
10 percent.


Fracasso


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