ACUS01 KWNS 051250
SWODY1
SPC AC 051248

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery reveals several shortwave troughs
within the active upper pattern across the CONUS. A southern-stream
wave currently moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is
forecast to become increasingly phased with another wave dropping
through the Mid MS Valley, resulting in a unified upper trough from
the Great Lakes/Ontario through the southern Plains by 00Z Friday.
Northern-stream upper ridging west of this upper trough is forecast
to move eastward over more of the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
while another quick-moving shortwave deepens as it moves into the
Intermountain West. 

Recent surface analysis places a cold front from far western Quebec
southward into far western PA before continuing south-southwestward
to a weak low over the TN/NC border vicinity. Modest moisture exists
downstream from this front, with mid 60s dewpoints across much of VA
and low 60s dewpoints as far north as the Hudson Valley. Modest
northward moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this cold front
as it moves eastward today, supporting showers and thunderstorms
from the Mid-Atlantic into the New England. 

...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast this
morning into the early afternoon, ahead of a weak low-amplitude
shortwave trough. Additional thunderstorms are possible this evening
and overnight, beginning along and ahead the front across the
northern Mid-Atlantic before spreading northward into southern New
England and southward into the rest of the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. Buoyancy will be modest, tempered by poor lapse rates,
widespread cloud cover and post peak heating frontal timing.
Consequently, predominantly shallow, short-lived updrafts are
anticipated. However, given the presence of moderately strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow, any deeper convection could briefly
produce damaging gusts. Anticipated isolated and brief nature of any
severe threat currently precludes the need for any severe
probabilities.

...OK/TX...
As mentioned in the synopsis, the southern-stream wave currently
moving eastward across the TX Panhandle vicinity is forecast to
continue eastward across the OK vicinity today. Cool mid-level
temperatures will support weak elevated instability, with a few
thunderstorms expected through the day and into the evening. 

Scattered elevated thunderstorms are also expected over Deep South
TX, as the southern end of the cold front undercuts a moist air mass
near the Gulf. Weak shear and buoyancy should preclude a severe
risk.

..Mosier/Moore.. 11/05/2026

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