ACUS02 KWNS 240553
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night
from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps
across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great
Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow
aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave
moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin.

In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located
over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending
southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z.
This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest
Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday.

Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F
dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and
western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature,
especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther
southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg.

Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general
thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift
along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak
thunderstorms along the front.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2024

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