ACUS02 KWNS 130555
SWODY2
SPC AC 130554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Central/South-Central States...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from
the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only
a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface,
where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally
weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F surface dewpoints into the TX
coast and east TX and the Sabine Valley vicinity through evening.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this low-level warm
advection regime ahead of the upper trough and weakening surface low
from east TX/LA into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley. A strong storm or
two may be possible across southeast TX into LA where deeper
boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based destabilization
will overlap with weak vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent
will remain weak as large-scale ascent remains displaced to the
north. Additionally, low and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor.
Overall severe potential is expected to remain negligible, and
thunderstorm activity across the region should diminish during the
evening hours.

...Pacific Coast States...

Persistent onshore flow is forecast through the evening hours as an
upper trough located offshore the Pacific coast Saturday morning
moves inland toward the Rockies by Sunday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected, especially during the 12-18z time frame
when large-scale ascent will be maximized amid steepening midlevel
lapse rates. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread
portions of central CA during the morning to midday time period,
resulting in some hodograph curvature. However, cool surface
temperatures and very modest instability (generally less than 200
J/kg MLCAPE) will likely limit surface-based convection.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2024

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