ACUS02 KWNS 040706
SWODY2
SPC AC 040705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening
from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes
and hail will be the primary threats.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valleys...
A mid-level trough will move eastward through the southern Plains on
Sunday, as an associated jet streak translates eastward into the
Ozarks. At the surface, a low will move across the Ozarks as a cold
front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A moist
airmass will be located ahead of the front, with moisture advection
taking place throughout the day. As surface temperatures warm,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday morning,
with storm coverage increasing rapidly by early afternoon. The
development of a linear MCS is expected as low-level convergence
couples with strong large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front.


A severe threat is expected to develop across a broad area Sunday
afternoon. During the afternoon, NAM forecast soundings from
southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana and central Mississippi
increase MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear reaching the 50
to 60 knot range. Stronger deep-layer shear will be likely as the
mid-level jet passes through the region during the late afternoon.
This will be favorable for severe storms, associated with the
development of a linear MCS. The wind-damage threat will be
maximized along the leading edge of the line, especially with bowing
line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to peak in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range ahead of the line,
suggesting a tornado threat will be likely with any rotating
elements within the line. If more discrete cells can develop ahead
of the line, then supercellular tornadoes would also be possible. At
this time, it appears that the wind-damage threat associated with
the line will be great enough to warrant upgrading to Enhanced
across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.

..Broyles.. 01/04/2025

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