ACUS01 KWNS 171225
SWODY1
SPC AC 171223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the
Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region
Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning.

...Eastern OK into AR...
Overnight water vapor imagery shows the subtropical jet extending
across northern Mexico into TX.  A 90-100 knot mid-level jet max
will track across this region today, with enhanced forcing for
large-scale ascent overspreading parts of eastern OK and much of AR
by late afternoon.  Forecast soundings in this region show stable
surface conditions.  However, weak elevated CAPE (generally below
250 J/kg) and strong low-level warm advection might support a few
thunderstorms by early evening.  Given the weak instability and
elevated nature of any convection that can form, severe storms are
not expected.

...MS/AL and central Gulf Coast...
As the jet max tracks eastward during the evening/night, increasing
low-level moisture will lead to broad destabilization (MUCAPE AOB
500 J/kg) across parts of MS/AL and the central Gulf Coast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form - mainly
after midnight.  Forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints in the
50s will not be sufficient for surface-based convection, limiting
any severe threat.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/17/2025

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