ACUS01 KWNS 181232
SWODY1
SPC AC 181231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast
vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

...FL/Southern GA...
Strong westerly subtropical mid/upper level flow is in place today
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of states.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring
overnight in the broad low-level warm advection regime beneath this
fast flow aloft.  Southwesterly low-level winds have gradually
transported moisture into the central Gulf states, with low-mid 60s
dewpoints from southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle.  This
zone along the coast will have weak but sufficient CAPE for a few
robust thunderstorms by early afternoon.  Deep layer shear profiles
are quite strong, supportive of rotating updrafts.  Forecast
soundings show deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates and relatively
veered low-level flow.  These factors will tend to limit updraft
strength and overall severe threat.  Nevertheless, an isolated
strong storm or two is possible later today (mainly this afternoon
and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a tornado.

..Hart/Wendt.. 01/18/2025

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