FOUS30 KWBC 230737
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 23 2025 - 12Z Fri Jan 24 2025


The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 24 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 25 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 25 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 26 2025

A developing closed low over central California late Saturday is
expected to advect enough moisture from the Pacific to generate
scattered to numerous showers that should start around 00Z Sunday,
with most guidance indicating QPF on the order of 0.25 to 0.50 of
an inch, with most of this within the last 6 hours of Day 3.

After collaboration with WFO Los Angeles, a Marginal Risk area has
been introduced for the Transverse Ranges and the surrounding
valleys. Even though the next round of rain appears to be mainly
moderate in intensity for the 00Z-12Z Sunday time period, the new
burn scar areas are extremely sensitive to run-off, and thus a
normally beneficial and modest rainfall could become problematic
and easily lead to flooding, with potentially serious impacts if
rainfall is heavier than expected and concentrated over a burn scar
near populated areas. There is still uncertainty regarding this 
event, so please monitor future forecasts and outlooks as details 
become better refined.

Hamrick

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