ACUS02 KWNS 020659
SWODY2
SPC AC 020657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday.

...Discussion...
A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day
2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with
time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and
retrogrades slowly southwestward.  As this occurs, broader/weakly
cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast.  In
response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S.,
and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states.

At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern
Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and
Midwest.  By late in the period, the front should extend from near
the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to
the southern Plains.

While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the
southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient
to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development.  Meanwhile,
Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove
hostile to deep convection.

Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will
likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded
lightning flash or two near the central Coast.  Overall potential
however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area
at this time.

..Goss.. 02/02/2025

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