810 
AXNT20 KNHC 031030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds across
the south-central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each 
night offshore of Colombia this week. Peak seas to 12 ft are 
expected with these winds in the SW Caribbean offshore waters 
between Panama and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to near 
02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 00N50W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is present from 02S to 04N
between 28W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 04S to 07N between 10W and 28W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging associated with a 1023 mb high pressure located
just S of the Florida Panhandle is the dominant feature in the 
basin. This is supporting gentle to moderate E winds E of 94W and
S winds of the same magnitude W of 94W and N of 22N. In the Bay 
of Campeche, a surface trough supports moderate winds. Slight seas
are basin-wide. Otherwise, isolated showers are ongoing in the NW
Gulf N of Tampico and in the Yucatan Channel.  

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico 
this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight 
to moderate seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are 
forecast at night N of the Yucatan Peninsuala and in the Bay of 
Campeche as a surface trough develops in the Peninsula and moves 
westward towards the coastal waters of Tampico and Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
near the coast of Colombia.

Aside from the gale-force winds off NW Colombia, the strong ridge
located north of the area continues to support fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds in the eastern, north-central and SW 
Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. These winds 
sustain moderate to rough seas in these waters. Moderate to fresh 
NE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the NW Caribbean,
except for gentle to moderate winds W of 82W. Otherwise, isolated 
showers are ongoing in the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night 
offshore of Colombia this week, supported by a tight pressure 
gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and predominant 
high pressure in the western Atlantic. Peak seas to 12 ft are 
expected with these winds in the SW Caribbean offshore waters 
between Panama and Colombia. Expect moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate to rough seas across the eastern, central and SW 
Caribbean through the week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds in
the central Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf 
of Venezuela and downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE 
winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through the week. 
Otherwise, E swell will support locally rough seas near the 
Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into
the Caribbean through Wed. East swell will resume and support 
rough seas across the Leeward Islands offshore zones Thu into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging associated
with a 1033 mb high pressure system located just south of Nova 
Scotia. The remnants of a former stationary front are analyzed as
a surface trough that extends from 31N62W SW to 28N74W. Moderate
NE winds and mainly moderate seas are in the vicinity of this
trough across the northern offshore waters between 55W and 68W. 
Another surface trough is along the Florida seaboard. The 
pressure gradient between the strong ridge and lower pressures in 
the deep tropics result in strong NE to E winds in the approaches 
of the Windward Passage and moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 
24N. These winds along with E swell support 5-7 ft seas in the 
area. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas are prevalent.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an
expansive subtropical ridge positioned between the Azores and
Madeira Islands. This strong ridge continue to support fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds across much of the central and 
eastern Atlantic, especially south of 27N. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the remnants of the stationary front, 
analyzed as a surface trough will dissipate this evening. The 
surface trough along the Florida seaboard will dissipate late 
today. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will dominate 
the region the remainder week with the tail of a cold front 
possibly clipping the northern offshore waters tonight through 
Wed. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast to prevail S of 
24N through the week, except for locally strong winds in the 
approaches of the Windward Passage. Otherwise, rough seas in E to 
NE swell will develop across the offshore waters E of 70W and S of
24N late Thu into early in the weekend. 

$$
Ramos
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