AWUS01 KWNH 061300
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-061830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0022
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EST Thu Feb 06 2025

Areas affected...South-central & Eastern KY...Southern WV... Far
Western VA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061300Z - 061830Z

SUMMARY...While intensity and coverage is on a downward trend, a
few cells will remain capable of intense rain rates of
1.25-1.5"/hr over saturated soils for scattered incident or two of
flash flooding through the remainder of the morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows the core of the triggering
shortwave energy along the base of the broader synoptic trough has
slid across central Ohio with trailing tail crossing northern KY
along/ahead of the approaching 130+kt flat upper-level jet.  This
orientation continues to provide solid broad scale ascent with
DPVA south and eastward across the area of concern, accompanied by
solid divergence to maintain ongoing convective activity across
the warm sector. Surface and VAD wind profiles also denote the
speed and directional confluence/convergence supporting the active
line of cells with about 30-45 degrees of convergence in both
10-20kts of sfc and 50 to 60kts of 850mb flow.  Additionally, this
confluence zone continues to align  with diminishing but
sufficient unstable air mass with mid-60s temps over upper 50s/low
60s Tds and modest lapse rates for 750-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across
south-central to southeastern KY reducing across WV to below 500 J/kg.

As such, overall trends have been toward slightly warming tops;
however, there remain some stronger/broader updrafts with weak
rotation across southern KY to tap all the available low level
moisture (over 1.25" total PWats), to allow for some remaining
efficient rainfall with sub-hourly rates resulting in some totals
over 1-1.25" in quick duration.  Instability and rates will
diminish through the morning, but west to east cell motion and
inflow from the southeast into increasing terrain should help for
some orographic enhancement as well to maintain a low-end
scattered threat for intense rates. 

While orientation of the convergence/convective line has become
more oblique to the mean steering flow, reducing the capability
for much higher totals from training noted overall; the soil
conditions across E KY into S WV/W VA remain cold and highly
saturated with NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm soil ratios well over 75%
with some spots near 90% in higher terrain that may still have or
recently just lost the majority of snow pack.  As such, FFG values
are very low (1-1.5"/hr) naturally and with little capacity for
uptake especially in remaining sub-hourly intense rates...even has
they diminish with reducing instability into late morning,
incidents of flash flooding will remain possible.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38778098 38658043 38308041 37908075 37228132 
            36698199 36628406 36738564 37078586 37408487 
            38088309 38468188 
$$
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