FOUS30 KWBC 080733
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025

...West Virginia...

Strong N-S quasi-zonal mid and upper level flow will be perturbed 
a bit during Day 1 (12Z Sat-12Z Sun) as a 150+ kt upper level jet 
streak traverses the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, while a flat 
500 mb vort lobe pushes across the Lower Great Lakes. Broad-scale 
exit region forcing associated with the upper jet axis will surge
southwesterly low-level inflow ahead of the surface frontal wave, 
with 850 mb moisture flux anomalies peaking between 4-5 standard 
deviations above normal later this afternoon into Sat night, while 
TPW values peak around 1". Robust synoptic-scale support and low- 
level moisture transport will be offset somewhat by the weak 
elevated instability, with MUCAPEs generally less than 500 J/Kg. 
Nevertheless, even though not advertised on the latest (00Z Sat) 
HREF, the aforementioned dynamic and thermodynamic ingredients will
be sufficient for spotty hourly rain rates of 0.5"+ and 3-hourly 
rates of 1.0"+, with localized event totals between 1.5-2.0"+. 

Current 3-hr flash flood guidance values remain quite low (1" or
less) across the outlook area, which includes much of WV. Despite
the lack of instability, the low FFG values could be exceeded over
isolated areas with 2 consecutive hours of 0.5"+/hr rainfall rates.
Since the soils in these areas are saturated, and the terrain is 
rugged, we have maintained the Marginal Risk area for much of WV 
(outside of its northern or eastern Panhandles).

Hurley/Roth


Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

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