AWUS01 KWNH 111204
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1246
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern KY...Southwest WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111203Z - 111630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall rates associated with showers and
thunderstorms going through midday may result in a few areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
convective cluster across northwest KY that is gradually advancing
off to the east in close proximity to a quasi-stationary front.
Surface observations suggest a weak surface low riding along the
front which is strongly facilitating this convective activity
given a corridor of relatively stronger low-level moisture
convergence near and ahead of the wave.

The environment is very moist with a deeply tropical column
suggested in OSPO ALPW data, with notable moisture concentrations
seen in the 700/300mb layer. RAP data suggests PWs overall are
near 2 inches, and generally near over 2 standard deviations above
normal for this time of the year.

Instability is modest with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, but
the level of columnar moisture/saturation suggests a rather tall,
skinny CAPE profile. Thus, a setup that is highly efficient and
capable of yielding high rainfall rates of up 2 inches/hour with
the stronger convective cores/updrafts near this advancing surface
wave. Relatively divergent flow aloft is also noted downstream of
the shortwave trough digging toward the Mid-South which is
favoring at least modest dynamical ascent.

Over the next few hours as this surface wave moves east across
north-central KY, there should tend to be some west/east focus of
convection with perhaps some occasional instances of
cell-training. The activity should impact portions of central and
eastern KY and may advance to an extent across southwest WV going
through midday. Given the high rainfall rate potential with
elevated warm cloud depths, and cell-training potential, a couple
of swaths of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals will be possible.

Given some of the local urban footprints and rugged terrain
farther east across eastern KY and southwest WV, a few areas of
flash flooding will be possible going through midday.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38508434 38508276 38318138 37928095 37518139 
            37398241 37328381 37318522 37488637 38068642 
            38328569 

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