277 
AXNT20 KNHC 101025
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: 
A tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure oriented
along 31N and low pressure centered across NW Colombia continues 
to support strong winds that pulse to gale force during the 
overnight hours offshore Barranquilla, Colombia. These conditions 
will prevail through Thursday night. Seas will peak at 11 to 13 ft
near the highest winds. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coastal 
border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 
03N23W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N23W across 
00N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 
the monsoon trough from 01N to 05N between 10W and 23W, and near 
the ITCZ from the Equator to 04N between 23W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1023 mb high over 
the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are present across the northern
Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft 
seas are found across the southern Gulf. Patchy fog is reducing
visibility over coastal waters within 90 nm of the U.S. shore.

For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the area will 
dominate much of the week, but gradually move east, allowing a 
cold front to enter the NW Gulf late this week. Southerly winds 
will increase ahead of this front, with some locally strong winds 
possible in the central Gulf.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning in
effect offshore Colombia.

A broad surface ridge with an axis roughly along 31N is sustaining
a trade-wind pattern across the basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds
and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted in the central and eastern basin, as
well as in the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate E winds with seas
of 4 to 7 ft dominate the western basin. 

For the forecast, fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are
expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean into the 
weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward 
Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Moderate 
to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of the
basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the Windward and 
Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea 
through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has devolved into a surface trough in the eastern
Atlantic that stretches from 31N19W to 28N22W this morning. A
broad high pressure, anchored by a 1026 mb center near 33N39W,
extending W along 31N, is dominating most of the basin, supporting
light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft for waters N of 26N.
To the south, an expansive trade-wind regime dominates, with
mainly fresh ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will 
prevail south of 25N into the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail through late week. East swell will 
bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of Puerto Rico 
through the weekend. 

$$
Konarik
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