470 
AXNT20 KNHC 111017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Feb 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: 
A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered N of the
basin and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue
to support strong to near-gale winds at the south- central
Caribbean through Friday. These winds are expected to peak at 
gale- force during the nighttime and early morning hours offshore 
of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas will peak at 11 to 13 ft near the 
highest winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of 
Sierra Leone near Freetown, then extends southwestward to 03N16W.
An ITCZ meanders westward from 03N16W to 00N42W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 180 nm along
either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Pensacola, Florida, to New
Orleans, Louisiana, to near Galveston Bay. Convection associated
with this front has diminished early this morning, but patchy fog
is restricting visibility within about 90 nm S of the boundary.
Elsewhere, ridging from a 1022 mb high pressure center N of the
Bahamas is leading to mainly moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
throughout the basin. 

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Wed night, 
then stall from the Bay of Campeche to near the Florida Big Bend 
Fri. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front in the 
central Gulf Wed. Strong to near gale force winds are expected 
behind the front, possibly reaching minimal gale force off 
Tampico, Mexico briefly Thu evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Feature section for information on a
Gale Warning offshore Colombia.

The Atlantic Ridge oriented along 28N is sustaining a trade-wind 
regime across the Caribbean Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area,
strong ENE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are evident in the central
basin. Fresh with locally strong NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft 
seas are noted across eastern basin, as well as the Windward and 
Mona passages. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft 
dominate the western basin. 

For the forecast, fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are 
expected across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean 
into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the 
Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. 
As the high pressure to the north builds southeast for the latter 
half of the week, strong winds and rough seas will expand to 
include much of the eastern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the northeastern 
Atlantic across 31N37W and a 1025 mb high near 28N56W to a 1022 
mb high north of the Bahamas. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 6 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells are found north of 25N. Farther 
south, mainly fresh ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft exist. 

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds 
will prevail south of 25N through the weekend. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail N of 25N until Fri, when a cold front will 
slide south of 30N to the W of 70W, bringing fresh to strong NE 
winds behind it. Easterly swell and waves from the aforementioned 
trade winds will lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. 

$$
Konarik
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