ACUS02 KWNS 110639
SWODY2
SPC AC 110638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will
begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the
mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a
southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low
will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the
mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer
Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far
north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through
the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday
morning.

...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the
surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial
extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less
clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM
guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment,
low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of
Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern
Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far
north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues
into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized
storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly
parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear
vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong
low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet
moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama
during the afternoon.

The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley
to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly
destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain.
Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and
the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk
for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much
progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves,
convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging
winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded
circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front
during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and
weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which
reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become
much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia.

..Wendt.. 02/11/2025

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