685 
AXNT20 KNHC 121026
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Feb 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a 1027
mb high pressure system near Bermuda and lower pressures in
northern Colombia is resulting in pulsing winds to gale force 
each night and early morning offshore of Colombia. This is 
expected to continue through early Fri morning. Rough to very 
rough seas are forecast with these winds, peaking near 14 ft 
during the highest winds. Winds and seas will diminish somewhat 
during the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to
03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 00N37W and to 00N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and 
between 22W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary over the far NW Gulf is now retreating N as a 
warm front, noted early this morning from SE Louisiana to the 
upper Texas coast. Convection associated with this feature has 
moved well inland. Elsewhere, a ridge over the western Atlantic 
continues to influence the weather conditions in the Gulf of 
Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures in Mexico and southern Texas support fresh southerly 
winds over much of the basin. These winds are sustaining seas of 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf late tonight, 
then stall from just N of Tampa Bay to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Fri night. Strong S winds are expected ahead of this front into
tonight, mainly in the central Gulf. Strong to near gale force 
winds are expected behind the front in the western Gulf. Looking 
ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early 
Sun and move SE across the basin by Mon evening. Strong to near
gale force N winds will also follow this front in the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,
read the Special Feature Section for details. 
The basin remains under the dominion of a broad subtropical ridge
positioned over the central and western Atlantic. The pressure 
gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces fresh to
strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, including 
the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate 
to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the
rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure 
ridge across the western Atlantic along 28N and low pressure over 
northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the 
central Caribbean pulsing to gale force each night and early 
morning near the coast of NW Colombia through Thu night. Rough to 
very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest 
winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected 
across the remainder of southwestern and central Caribbean into 
the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the 
Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. 
Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W early Thu through 
Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds and rough 
seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic 
waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift 
eastward Mon and Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is sagging just S of 30N from 50W to 70W.
Otherwise, the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. 
Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are present south of
25N and west of 55W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. 
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted west
of 75W and north of 25N.

The subtropical ridge is also forcing fresh to strong NE-E trade 
winds south of 23N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 
Wave heights in these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range. The 
strongest winds and highest seas are found west of 50W and south 
of 20N. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds 
will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic 
ridge persists along 28N-29N. Associated easterly swell will also 
lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N until Thu, when a cold front 
will move into the NW waters, south of 30N and to the W of 70W, 
bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. The front is expected
to move eastward into the weekend, and stall E to W along 26N on 
Sat. The next front will exit the SE U.S. Sun night and reach from
near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas Mon afternoon. 

$$
Konarik
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