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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
Mike Powell | All | HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa |
April 18, 2024 8:26 AM * |
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FOUS30 KWBC 180817 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Day 1 Valid 01Z Thu Apr 18 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 18 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... A cold front will be advancing south and east through the Central and Southern Plains while a warm front lifts through the Mid- Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. A broad area of showers will spread along and north of the warm front from Missouri to northwest Georgia. Meanwhile storms will fire up ahead of the approaching cold front from Missouri to Texas. The Gulf moisture streaming northward will help enhance and sustain rainfall across the region and may become heavy at times. Recent rains have lowered some of the FFG across this region and may have an increased sensitivity to additional rain/heavy rain. A Marginal Risk area covers part of northeast Texas to southern Missouri and western Kentucky. The latest guidance is persistent with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches across eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Regional instability is highest across the southern plains, but the combination of stronger mid-level forcing along with sufficient buoyancy is located over the Mid- Mississippi Valley where the best prospect for flooding is anticipated. Relative progressive nature of the cold front will limit higher end potential over the Missouri Basin, but an upgrade to a Slight is not completely out of the question, pending evolution and trends upstream as the shortwave exits out of Nebraska. Campbell/Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 18 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 19 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS AND FOR PARTS OF THE RED RIVER... The cold front will continue to press southward through the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley before slowing/stalling. A dryline will also be present from the Oklahoma Panhandle to the Big Bend area. Convection is expected to be along and south of the front over the Southern/Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley with the higher QPF near/east of the dryline in west-central Texas. The consensus for the area over the Texas Big Bend up through the Edwards Plateau has grown within this suite of guidance with the environment primed for higher end convective development from the Lower Trans Pecos, eastward into the Rio Grande and adjacent Edwards Plateau. Ensemble probabilities remain on the lower end, however they are within the 10-20% range for totals exceeding 2" which would be sufficient for localized flood concerns within the terrain focused over the area. The timing differences remain across the Red River and southern Oklahoma with the front into that area with the convergence pattern expected towards the back end of the forecast period with a higher potential for flash flooding. A Marginal Risk area spans the Big Bend area northeast into the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. Another Marginal Risk area covers portions of southern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and western Arkansas. Campbell/Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 19 2024 - 12Z Sat Apr 20 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN TEXAS, NORTHWEST Louisiana, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... The front will remain stalled across the South meanwhile moisture will steadily increase. Precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5 inches (upwards of 2.5 sigma) will be in place across much of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley also where there will be very strong mid-level ascent. This environment will be very conducive for widespread heavy rainfall. The highest QPF will focus over central and eastern Texas where areal averages of 2 to 4 inches will be common - a Slight Risk area covers much of this part of region. Isolated higher amounts will possible, particularly for locations east/northeast of the Hill Country. A Marginal Risk area spans from western TExas to eastern Mississippi. Campbell = = = --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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