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Message   Mike Powell    All   DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic   March 28, 2024
 8:22 AM *  

ACUS02 KWNS 280542
SWODY2
SPC AC 280540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and
central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur
across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold
mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and
ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region.
A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related
to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central
Rockies.

Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward
from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper
Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this
low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited,
with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still,
a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the
northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the
Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be
located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features
should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening
southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development
mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the
mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though
deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame,
convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak
MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber
hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears
possible.

..Gleason.. 03/28/2024

$$
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