947 
FXUS64 KMRX 041122
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Strong gusty winds will occur in the higher elevations and 
foothills of the East Tennessee mountains tonight and Wednesday. A 
Wind Advisory remains in effect. 

- Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms expected today into
  Thursday morning. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

An approaching low pressure system over the MS Valley region will 
bring gusty winds to the mountains and foothills and widespread 
rainfall to our area today and tonight. So far, winds in the usual 
wind-prone places in the mountains and foothills have been in the 35-
45 mph range. A few spots like Cove Mountain and Camp Creek could 
reach 50-60 mph, but most areas in the Wind Advisory will stay under 
50 mph. 

Light precip has been spreading into the area already, but the 
moderate rain associated with the cold front will arrive later in 
the morning, around 12Z or so. There is some weak instability that 
could allow for a few isolated thunderstorms, but overall, the 
dynamics with this system are not particularly impressive. The front 
will be slow to progress through the area as the closed upper low 
moves over the Great Lakes, and this slow movement will allow for 
some needed rainfall amounts of a half to one inch through Wednesday 
night. Some spots with orographic enhancement could see higher 
amounts. The preceding dry conditions make the chance of flooding 
low, but it cannot be ruled out completely in some flood-prone or 
urban areas. 

Temperatures behind the front on Thursday don't drop much, with 
highs still in the 70s. A stronger push of cold air comes on Friday 
night with the passage of a deeper upper trough and a secondary cold 
front. This will bring highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s for the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Aviation conditions have already deteriorated at CHA due to
showers with the same trend expected at TYS by late morning. CHA
is will also continue seeing strong southeasterly winds gusting 
to 25 kts or more. Both sites are expected to deteriorate to MVFR 
with this trend coming to TRI later in the afternoon or early 
evening. Also, storms are possible around CHA and TYS, which could
lead to some IFR reductions. Intensity will be less by the time 
TRI is reached, but IFR is still possible. Rain will clear out 
tonight with MVFR or less expected at all sites. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  61  75  52 /  90  50   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  62  73  52 /  90  80  20  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  60  73  49 /  90  80   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  60  73  53 /  70  90  30  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


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